By Roshan Thomas
Sept 17 (Reuters) – Bearish sentiment towards most emerging Asian currencies deepened, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as investors contended with the twin headwinds of escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline last week pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, while firmer U.S. Treasury yields reinforced the dollar’s appeal, creating a challenging environment for emerging Asian currencies.
Higher oil prices tend to weigh on the region’s energy-importing economies by swelling import bills, worsening trade balances and pressuring local currencies.
All of the poll responses were collected before the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates on Wednesday, its first increase in three years.
The Philippine peso remained the most shorted currency in the survey, with bearish bets climbing to their highest level in over four months. The currency is among the region’s worst performers this year, having hit record lows three times in September.
However, analysts at MUFG said the risk-reward for long dollar positions against the peso had become less attractive, citing an undervalued currency and improving domestic fundamentals.
Investors also added to short positions in the Thai baht, turning the most bearish in about two months, as rising oil import costs continued to weigh on Thailand’s terms of trade, offsetting gains from stronger electronics exports. Short positions on the Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit also grew to their largest since July.
While higher oil prices and fiscal concerns tied to fuel subsidies could generate bouts of weakness, analysts at MUFG said Malaysia’s electronics trade surplus had been sufficient to offset a higher energy import bill. They see scope for ringgit strength.
In Indonesia, attention turned back to the domestic political landscape after President Prabowo Subianto replaced the finance minister with the deputy finance minister this week.
The move is likely to reassure investors after months of concerns over policy credibility, at a time when broader governance concerns have markets reassessing Indonesia’s longer-term investment appeal.
Sentiment towards the Indonesian rupiah improved, with investors trimming short positions despite the currency having lost 6% so far this year.
“The rupiah should recoup year-to-date losses against low-yielding emerging Asia peers now that domestic risks have stabilized,” analysts at TD Securities said in a note.
Elsewhere, investors pared back their bullish positions on the Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar and the Korean won.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
17-Sep-26 -0.88 -1.54 -0.52 0.40 -0.08 0.57 0.26 1.44 0.91
3-Sep-26 -0.75 -1.70 -0.56 0.49 -0.27 0.42 0.02 1.29 0.80
20-Aug-26 -0.95 -1.31 -0.54 0.59 0.15 0.33 -0.04 0.74 0.50
6-Aug-26 -0.81 -1.00 -0.25 1.05 0.79 0.46 0.23 0.63 0.81
23-Jul-26 -0.63 0.19 0.20 1.18 1.19 0.82 0.38 1.14 1.30
9-Jul-26 -0.65 1.42 0.25 1.53 1.00 0.74 0.39 1.16 1.01
25-Jun-26 -0.96 1.63 0.17 1.56 0.61 0.54 0.59 1.05 1.08
11-Jun-26 -1.25 1.69 -0.19 2.11 0.58 1.23 0.13 1.24 0.98
28-May-26 -1.40 0.95 -0.63 1.84 0.15 1.43 -0.73 1.35 0.75
14-May-26 -1.35 0.33 -0.83 1.73 0.15 1.63 -0.80 1.30 0.65
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)
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